Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 11.222942 12.859132 14.622509 16.660767 18.948219 21.432416 24.330756
2025-06-29 8.708530 10.899742 13.446258 16.610245 20.420749 24.845873 30.356638
2025-07-06 7.013018 9.309004 12.113340 15.765203 20.366702 25.941492 33.172181
2025-07-13 6.248366 8.727619 11.888309 16.172280 21.780021 28.818253 38.259469
2025-07-20 5.628935 8.221704 11.652847 16.466970 22.977719 31.398117 43.018162
2025-07-27 5.002924 7.622295 11.212345 16.414290 23.664926 33.303772 46.953309
2025-08-03 4.436793 7.035114 10.715817 16.212004 24.089976 34.831454 50.406307
2025-08-10 4.018160 6.612575 10.401843 16.218898 24.772461 36.706335 54.383362
2025-08-17 3.698132 6.301582 10.214029 16.376155 25.652679 38.870472 58.833571
2025-08-24 3.372263 5.945939 9.922824 16.344204 26.232709 40.609799 62.730534
2025-08-31 3.061361 5.581655 9.583387 16.202813 26.621827 42.066683 66.255578
2025-09-07 2.839194 5.341220 9.415739 16.307842 27.376707 44.078660 70.662891
2025-09-14 2.701807 5.237649 9.468217 16.777748 28.742512 47.100181 76.766007
2025-09-21 2.456245 4.920487 9.141184 16.603166 29.070417 48.544536 80.528184
2025-09-28 2.132124 4.426761 8.470747 15.799717 28.316913 48.246174 81.545473
2025-10-05 2.033322 4.342314 8.503739 16.192793 29.550991 51.135552 87.681618
2025-10-12 1.928650 4.235771 8.487010 16.493078 30.636762 53.822533 93.589447
2025-10-19 1.783135 4.034196 8.280344 16.438486 31.105335 55.512741 97.939568
2025-10-26 1.631963 3.805670 8.004511 16.236571 31.299181 56.745337 101.573462
2025-11-02 1.520314 3.647607 7.849195 16.243251 31.855013 58.598061 106.294643
2025-11-09 1.435389 3.537797 7.778192 16.400797 32.684057 60.940703 111.916166
2025-11-16 1.336508 3.387475 7.614816 16.368776 33.160744 62.688237 116.580654
2025-11-23 1.234713 3.220054 7.403365 16.227205 33.422199 64.062790 120.643130